I like Jeremy Hellickson, I swear, but he’s not going to redefine what we think about BABIP. His was .223 last year and he had an 82% strand rate (now the Rays typically have a great bullpen, but still). I don’t think he’ll fall of a cliff, but his ERA will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Still, he should take a step forward in the K-department (maybe to 150+) and should post a respectable 1.25 WHIP. He’s a good young pitcher, and his best years are to come, I just wouldn’t pay for them in 2012.
Similarly, I find it hard to get excited by Jaime Garcia. He maintained solid numbers last year while throwing 30 more innings, however the quantity just isn’t quite there. He seems like a 150 K guy to me, with decent but not exceptional ratios (3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). If you’re going to strike-out so few batters, I’d look for a Tim Hudson-esque ERA. As it stands, it’s nice to own Garcia, but he isn’t more than a back of the rotation type.
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