Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays SP
I like Jeremy Hellickson, I swear, but he’s not going to redefine what we think about BABIP. His was .223 last year and he had an 82% strand rate (now the Rays typically have a great bullpen, but still). I don’t think he’ll fall of a cliff, but his ERA will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Still, he should take a step forward in the K-department (maybe to 150+) and should post a respectable 1.25 WHIP. He’s a good young pitcher, and his best years are to come, I just wouldn’t pay for them in 2012.
Similarly, I find it hard to get excited by Jaime Garcia. He maintained solid numbers last year while throwing 30 more innings, however the quantity just isn’t quite there. He seems like a 150 K guy to me, with decent but not exceptional ratios (3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). If you’re going to strike-out so few batters, I’d look for a Tim Hudson-esque ERA. As it stands, it’s nice to own Garcia, but he isn’t more than a back of the rotation type.
READ THE REST OF ALBERT’S PREVIEW OF THE 2012 SP HERE.
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You also didn’t take a stab at guys like Bard, Feliz, Sale, or Crow–do your projections not include newly converted relievers?
Well, they dont have SP eligibility yet. You cant just assume they’ll get it. What if the Red Sox have some injuries to the bullpen and have to rush Bard back to RP and he never gains SP eligibility.
You cant really rank someone at a position that he doesnt qualify (hence Jesus Montero not being ranked at catcher)
that said, they are all ranked in the RP category and those ranks do reflect the possibility of them entering the rotation
There are a few guys you’ve got pretty low: McCarthy, Vogelsong, Luebke–what are your takes on them? Do you think McCarthy won’t stay healthy again? IMO, you seem to over-value high-K guys like Gallardo, Ubaldo, and Garza (and obviously by your comments about Garcia, etc.)
Well, it’s important to note that these are h2h rankings, not roto. in addition, they take into account 3 years of performance to try and avoid some flash in the pan type seasons. That said, I had McCarthy as a sleeper last year.
I am down on Vogelsong (with analysis: http://fp911.com/2012-fantasy-baseball-sp-preview-h2h/)
As for Luebke, he never had a K-rate in the minors like he did last season, and has never pitched 160 innings in the majors. Until he does that, it’s hard to just assume he will. He does look like a solid pitcher coming into his own, but i need to see him pitch effectively in the majors for a full season before I jump on the bandwagon.
RT @FB101: 2012 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings – H2H – http://t.co/Pr2hkeeR (via #sociablesite) http://t.co/Pr2hkeeR
2012 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings – H2H – http://t.co/Sj7U9RC9 (via #sociablesite) http://t.co/Sj7U9RC9
2012 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings – H2H – http://t.co/Sj7U9RC9 (via @Fp911) #roto #fantasybaseball
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