As the number of drafts continues to climb, we are seeing the typical movement many would expect as numbers get larger. Small samples skew information. With mock drafts running in full force now, there has been normalization in the way players are being drafted. You will still see some variability in who is going first or has gone first in many cases, but the aggregate takes that out.
- Check out what you need to know in the latest update on ADP:
- Tom Brady is starting to distance himself from Cam Newton as the third quarterback off the board behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Owners, rightfully, seemed to express little concern that Brees would not be signed and his steadiness reflects that. Brady finds himself the 16th player off the board in most cases but he has gone as high as number five overall. That is actually two spots better than Brees’ highest mark. The point? If you want Brady, making the move earlier seems to be the current bet.
- While the resolution to Wes Welker’s contract and his signing of the franchise tender has helped him jump up three spots, there is still the issue of what to do with Mike Wallace. Wallace has not signed a contract and is currently holding out. Right now, we have seen him jump up two spots and is going as high as number 34 overall. I believe that Wallace will sign and play, but it is certainly a tough situation.
- Toward the bottom of the top-100, two quarterbacks are jumping up at a near identical rate. Both Tony Romo and Matt Ryan are moving into the ninth round. With each jumping up four spots, we can see some faith being placed similar to the expectations that were out last season. Ryan can throw and has two key weapons at his disposal. For Romo, Dez Bryant’s availability could certainly be a question. Romo is going as high as 47th with Ryan as high as 65. Largely, Ryan’s selections are far more centered than Romo, who is seeing wide variability as to when he comes off the board.
- Another player to note on this list that is climbing quickly would be Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd will be reunited with Josh McDaniels in New England and has shown that he can thrive in the coach’s offense. Lloyd was productive even in spots where his quarterback was far from the caliber of Brady. Lloyd jumped five spots, one of the biggest movers since the last iteration.
- There seems to be some early value in Michael Turner. Turner had 11 touchdowns last season and over 1,300 yards. Right now, he is going 19th overall. Certainly something that can be exploited by drafters. While Turner may not be as electric as he once was, there is something to be said for the stability he can provide. A player like Trent Richardson is exciting as a rookie and Darren McFadden is electric when he is on the field. Each provides seemingly more risk than a player like Turner.
That is what you need to know this week. Next week, some deeper look at PPR drafting as well as the impact or any camp news that comes out.