There are plenty of people with varying thoughts around ADP for all sports. Some view it as a strong indicator while others feel that it is not even a strong enough tool to keep in the arsenal. The truth as always lies somewhere in the middle. It simply needs to be viewed in the right context. The details that have been referenced in this weekly write-up have come from MockDraftCentral.com. It has plenty of drafts to draw from and looks at both PPR and non-PPR formats. A good tool overall.
Still, I sat in two drafts last night where if you based your strategy around this site you would have been off. Even more so, the ADP feature on sites like Yahoo! and NFL.com was far off compared to how people selected in the room itself. Preparation continues to be the key. So this week there are some notes from the drafts I took part in on Wednesday night with FP911.com and FantasyTrade411.com as well as some thoughts from MockDraftCentral.com. This will help to bring that complete perspective.
- While we are seeing only Drew Brees go high in the first round, each draft last night had at least three quarterbacks off the board in the first round with a fourth not far behind. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are easy to come up with as first rounders, but the fourth is not Cam Newton. Matt Stafford is the guy that goes next.
- The only receiver off the board in the first round continues to be Calvin Johnson, but do not wait too long here. The top receivers are off the board by the end of round three in most drafts. Though it is a deep position, having a true number one is going to make you feel far more confident. Adding depth is solid, but it is not a replacement.
- Some examples of this? While Doug Martin is off the board with an average pick of number 31, A.J. Green, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Marshall have all gone as high or higher than Martin in a given draft. Martin’s high pick in 91 drafts over the last week was 21. Green has gone as high as 17 and the others have each gone at 21. Thinking you can wait to get a receiver of this caliber may completely backfire if you strictly look at ADP.
- Injuries and contract situations are certainly weighing on the mind of owners. While Jason Witten will not need surgery on his spleen, he continues to fall in drafts down. His average pick is in the late-70’s but he has only gone as high as the mid-50’s. More odd? People are so nervous that he has gone undrafted more than once. The news that Witten thinks he will be ready for Week One will help this, but be careful.
- The news that Adrian Peterson is going to be ready come the first week of the season has helped his overall high pick spot. Peterson has gone in the first round in many drafts and is a secure second round pick with an average pick of 14.37. The draft is still very heavy in running backs over the first two rounds specifically.