Bad week in Week six, I over thought some things and went a little too stat heavy which is unlike me. I am anything but a stat dork! So I will mix back a little more intuition this week and that should clean things up. I received a lot of questions last week and I’m open to more, feel free to email me at SteveDeAngelo@gmail.com or ask @FantasySavvy on Twitter.
You won’t see the obvious names on here, that would be pointless. Maybe occasionally to give you a reminder, but rather we are looking to identify some guys that you may be on the fence with and encourage you to either start or sit them. Matchups will be broken down, stats will be used, some projections will be provided and some “gut” feeling will be mixed in. But when it comes down to the come down, it’s your “gut” you need to roll with.
*Players listed in order of projected effectiveness in the start ‘em category and ineffectiveness in the sit ‘em category.
Tony Romo @ Carolina
Romo usually is an every week starter and really doesn’t belong on this list, but his rough start has his owners playing matchups. But despite him averaging just one TD a game in his last four, things will certainly improve. Jason Garrett talked about being more balanced on offense coming off their bye week and it showed last week as the Cowboys ran for over 200 yards against the Ravens. This obviously helps Tony Romo tremendously and the Cowboys despite DeMarco Murray being out should be able to move the chains on the ground again as Carolina has one of the worst rush defenses. Look for Romo to stay fairly consistent from here on out and for it to start this week. I expect around 250-280 yards passing with at least two TD’s.
Carson Palmer vs Jacksonville
Palmer is a fairly decent Fantasy QB, let’s face it. The guy isn’t good outside of Fantasy Football anymore, but he can give you those 300-yard two TD type games from time to time. This is a good matchup vs Palmer as he comes home and faces Jacksonville who are giving up an average of 20 points per game to Fantasy QB’s. Look for Palmer to approach 300 yards once again and find the endzone once or twice. Let’s just hope he doesn’t throw over two interceptions if your league is subtracting minus two points per INT.
Josh Freeman vs New Orleans
I was impressed that Freeman threw for over 300 yards against Kansas City who had been improving recently. This week he faces New Orleans and should throw it over 35 times as he tries to keep pace with Drew Brees. The Saints have also been bad against the pass giving up 25 points a week to Fantasy QB’s. Look for Freeman to put up Fantasy worthy numbers.
Christian Ponder vs Arizona
Ponder excelled the last two weeks in what were two great matchups against the Titans and Skins, but he faces a much tougher test against Arizona who are allowing the third fewest points to Fantasy QB’s. Ponder will come back to earth this week as he faces a legit Defense.
Matt Stafford @ Chicago
Stafford continues to frustrate owners every week and is still without a multi-TD game. It won’t turnaround on Monday Night in Chicago against the Bears who are allowing just 13 points a week to Fantasy QB’s, which is best in the league.
Joe Flacco @ Houston
The Texans defense hasn’t been as strong as last year, but they still have been good. And even though they allowed six passing TD”s to Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco is a far cry from Rodgers. Sorry Flacco but you are not elite! On the road, I expect Flacco to struggle a bit here and likely will be held to one TD, so explore other options.
Stevan Ridley vs New York Jets
Because of his late game fumble in Week five against Denver, Ridley was getting less carries than Brandon Bolden last week before Bolden got hurt. When it comes to fumbling Bill Belichick does not play around. Fortunately for Ridley, Bolden did get hurt and might not play this week. Ridley has a great chance to restore his coach’s confidence against the Jets and should find running lanes against New York who are giving up 25 points per game to Fantasy Backs. He should find the endzone and finish with a nice game. Let’s just hope as Ridley owners he holds onto the ball!
Chris Johnson @ Buffalo
I still don’t like the way Johnson is running this season, going down easily and a little too much east to west, but he has started to pick it up a bit over the last few weeks. This has to be a matchup he can succeed in against Buffalo. The Titans should stay close in this game and Johnson should should find room against the Bills who are allowing 29 points a game to Fantasy Backs, sixth worst in the league. C’mon Chris don’t let us down this week, otherwise you will never be on this list again!
Felix Jones @ Carolina
Jones was probably the number one waiver pick up this week with the news that DeMarco Murray will be out in Week seven. Also, with backs like Reggie Bush, LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles on a bye this week, Jones makes for a nice replacement. The stars have aligned to start Jones here, good matchup (Carolina 2nd worst in points allowed to Fantasy Backs) and Murray is out, allowing pretty much full reign for Jones, although we will see a little Phillip Tanner. You picked Jones up, so stick him in your lineups this week.
Mikel LeShoure @ Chicago
Good news for LeShoure owners that Jahvid Best will not be returning this season, but bad news this week as he goes against the Bears who have allowed the 2nd fewest points to Fantasy Backs. LeShoure hasn’t succeeded in tough matchups before so no reason to think he will here. Keep him benched if you can.
Frank Gore vs Seattle
Going to be a slow physical game in San Fran tonight and Gore won’t find much running room against the Hawks who haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and given up just two rushing TD’s.
Marshawn Lynch @ San Francisco
Lynch is one of the few who have went over 100 yards against the 49ers and Bradshaw did it last week, but I still am sitting Lynch if I can. Many of us might not have that luxury, but don’t expect another 100-yard game.
Stevie Johnson vs Tennessee
The Titans D has allowed 77 points to Fantasy WR’s the last two weeks and Stevie Johnson should burn them as well. Johnson is a must start this week.
Vincent Jackson vs New Orleans
Phillip Rivers looked like he could of used Vincent Jackson on Monday Night as he struggled mightily. But unfortunately for Rivers, Jackson has taken his talents to Tampa Bay and has enjoyed continued success with Josh Freeman. Jackson had two TD’s last week and now has four on the year to go along with two 100-yard games. He will be targeted early and often against New Orleans and should easily produce. Even with ineptitude of Josh Freeman, Jackson is proving to be a every week starter regardless of matchup.
Lance Moore @ Tampa Bay
Outside of last week where Tampa faced Brady Quinn the Bucs have allowed over 37 points a game to Fantasy WR’s, including allowing a whopping 76 points to Giants WR’s in week two. Drew Brees will be tossing the rock all day and I look for Lance Moore and Brees to hook up on those back shoulder throws. Go outside Sunday and try to run a couple of those back shoulders throws 15 yards down the field with a defender on the receiver. These guys make it look easy! Moore should find the endzone at least once, at the very least approach 100 yards in this game.
Andre Roberts @ Minnesota
Roberts is talented and it seemed like he was going to be in for a nice little season, but the last two weeks he has fizzed out. He won’t rebound against the Vikings on the road with John Skeleton now at QB. Let’s see how these two work together before reinserting Roberts back into our lineups. Andre could be a waiver candidate soon if he puts up a few more duds.
Michael Crabtree vs Seattle
This game is going to be a slugfest and both offenses will struggle. Keep Crabtree benched for this tough matchup on Thursday Night.
Steve Smith vs Dallas
My gut is telling me Smith may have a breakout game here, but the numbers say otherwise so I will stick with the numbers and logic here. Smith doesn’t have a TD all year and has been held under 100 yards in his last three games. Dallas has been 2nd best against Fantasy Wideouts so consider benching Smith if you have a more lucrative option.
Jason Witten @ Carolina
Witten had a horrible start to the year, but he has returned to normalcy with two strong performances against Chicago and Baltimore. Last time you will see Witten here, he should remain an every week starter from here on in as he continues to be one of Romo‘s top targets.
Martellus Bennett vs Washington
This game should be a wild, high scoring affair in the Meadowlands and Bennett should play a nice role against the Skins who are allowing the 2nd most points to Fantasy Tight Ends. Bennett has slowed up after a fast start, but he should rebound in this game; it’s a good spot to plug him in.
Heath Miller @ Cincinnati
Heath Miller is actually younger than me! That’s pretty scary as I just turned 30 years old and Miller is only 29. Actually looking at it I’m only eight days older than the guy! It seems like this guy has been playing in the league for 10 years. So this guy definitely ain’t crusty, although I may have thought that a few times. I know I’m not crusty, although my knee has swelled up from consistently banging it while playing football on Sundays! But dang, being 30 blows. Oh well I made my mistakes, now it’s time to dominate. Ok, back to the youthful and vibrant Miller who started out his first three games with four TD’s, but has slowed down some. Still, he is being targeted often by Big Ben and will be a good play most weeks. This is a matchup he can thrive in against the Bengals who are allowing the 8th most points to Fantasy Tight Ends.
Dennis Pitta @ Houston
So much for Dennis Pitta. This guy was on fire to start the year and has done absolutely jack the last few weeks. I have him in a few leagues and will be holding him for a few more weeks just out of necessity, but he will probably be cut soon, unless he shows some signs. Keep him benched until he proves himself again.
Jermichael Finely @ St. Louis
Finley has been an absolute Fantasy Bust! Let’s face it, this guy is just simply overrated and always has been. Don’t expect a rebound, you will just be disappointed. Try to move him this week before it’s too late, it may already be. He’s going to do nothing again this week most likely. Even when he gets targets he drops the ball! Fughedaboutit!!!
Fred Davis @ New York Giants
I think Davis and Griffin will be a better combo as the season moves on, but right now Davis isn’t providing much (hasn’t scored a TD this season) and this is a tough matchup against the G-Men who are allowing the sixth fewest points to Tight Ends.
Chandler Jones vs New York Jets
The Jets have given up the 24th most points to Fantasy DE’s this season and Chandler has enjoyed a nice rookie season with five sacks and three forced fumbles. The Jets will be passing a ton in this game, so Jones will have plenty of shots on Sanchez and should get a sack or two.
Malcolm Jenkins @ Tampa Bay
Like this spot for Jenkins against Tampa who will be running a lot initially giving Jenkins a chance to rack up tackles. I look for around seven or eight tackles from Jenkins in this game.
DeAngelo Hall @ New York Giants
Hall sees this list a lot because I don’t trust him against good QB’s. Hall exploits bad QB’s not good ones and I think he will struggle to produce going against Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Eli Manning.
Cortland Finnegan vs Green Bay Packers
Finnegan has been one of the better Fantasy Corners with 34 tackles, three picks and seven pass deflections. But I don’t think he gets any picks this week nor many pass deflections going against Aaron Rodgers. Tough matchup, I would look to bench him.