CIA Spreadsheet as of May 21

Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Here are the latest results of the Closer Identifier Algorithm. There are a few changes from last week, and we have added a comments column to explain why.

During the year we may be tweaking the algorithm, and trying to get as high predictive accuracy as possible. Then, next year, I am going to challenge a bunch of fantasy analysts to a contest in making predictions against CIA.

One tweak we have made already is to apply it regardless of sample size. This change results in Jordan Walden becoming a “hit.” It missed on Sean Marshall, since Chapman is just so good.

Tune in to USA Today’s Fantasy Windup for the latest article tomorrow. I am considering how to incorporate, if at all, closers with extremely long leashes but subpar skills. And for Chris Perez lovers, he is very close to becoming a “hold” based on his much-improved K rate!

Pitcher	CIA result	Reason for Change, if any
Jim Johnson	Lose
Alfredo Aceves	Lose	K/BB rate dipped below 2.5
Hector Santiago	Hold
Addison Reed	Hold
Chris Perez	Lose
Jose Valverde	Lose
Jon Broxton	Lose
Scott Downs	Lose
Ernesto Frieri	Hold
Matt Capps	Lose
David Robertson	Hold
Brian Fuentes	Lose
Brandon League	Lose
Fernando Rodney	Hold
Joe Nathan	Hold
Casey Janssen	Hold
JJ Putz	Hold
Craig Kimbrel	Hold
Rafael Dolis	Lose
Sean Marshall	Hold	Lost job
Aroldis Chapman	Hold
Rafael Betancourt	Hold
Brett Myers	Lose
Kenley Jansen	Hold
Steve Cishek	Lose	K rate dips below 2.5
Ed Mujica	Hold
John Axford	Hold
Jon Rauch	Lose
Jon Papelbon	Hold
Joel Hanrahan	Lose	BB rate 6.75, 1.5 K/BB and BPV
Dale Thayer	Hold
Santiago Casilla	Hold	K rate jumps over 7.0, BPV up over 80
Jason Motte	Hold
Henry Rodriguez	Lose