Close Identifier Algorithm Results For August 20 - FantasyPros911.comFantasyPros911.com

Joel Hanrahan, PIT

Here are this week’s results with predictions. Two status changes this week.

Pitcher	CIA result	Comments
Jim Johnson	Lose	Skills eroding almost every week. But cant argue with 37/40.
Alfredo Aceves	Hold	BPV exactly 80 changes status.
Addison Reed	Hold	4.0 K/BB ratio in last month solidifies spot.
Chris Perez	Hold	Amazingly, no worries at all.
Jose Valverde	Lose	Still arguably the worst closer in baseball.
Greg Holland	Hold	Just like that he is now a “hold,” as he has taken well to the role
Ernesto Frieri	Hold	Probably a bit lucky, and K/BB of 2.9 is not great for his K rate but shows good closers can be found.
Scott Downs	Lose	Back sooner than expected, role remains to be seen.
Glen Perkins	Hold	No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.
Jared Burton	Hold	No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.
Rafael Soriano	Hold	HR/FB still a low 2%, but had a good week and is a solid “hold.”
Grant Balfour	Lose	Appears to be a new man in the last month and 4-4 since he got the job back. And skills MUCH improved-close to ‘hold” status.
Tom Wilhelmsen	Hold	No worries at all.
Fernando Rodney	Hold	Made headlines by actually blowing a save. Who thought that would happen?
Joe Nathan	Hold	Practically a perfect skill set.
Casey Janssen	Hold	Has literally no flaws and no reason for concern. One of the best in the game right now.
JJ Putz	Hold	Only thing holding him back is lack of opportunities, but skill set is one of the best.
Craig Kimbrel	Hold	251 BPV? Insane.
Carlos Marmol	Hold	Believe it or not, has still not blown a save since April and is 14-14 since.
Aroldis Chapman	Hold	Watching him is like watching a pitcher who dropped in to the majors from a higher league.
Rafael Betancourt	Hold	Worried about next year, but almost no chance of job loss this year.
Kenley Jansen	Hold	A solid second-tier closer with a non-zero chance at being first-tier next year.
Steve Cishek	Lose	Still a “lose” but has been very good the last month, solidifying his job. And has been see-sawing between ‘hold” and ‘lose” all year.
Wilton Lopez	Hold	Doing it with miniscule BB rate. Last time that happened his K/BB dropped by 2/3 the next year.
Frank Francisco	Lose	Cannot yet consider him out of the role, but he was brought in during an 8-1 game and let up enough that Rauch got the save. Then got the save on 8/18.
Jon Rauch	Lose	Added in with 2 saves last week. Weak K rate gives him a “lose” status.
John Axford	Lose	No saves since 8/6 but not quite ready to declare him a “hit” for CIA just yet.
Jim Henderson	Hold	Shaky lately and rules don’t really apply to this small of a sample. But 5.7 K/BB is strong.
Jon Papelbon	Hold	No danger.
Joel Hanrahan	Hold	One of the most dependable in the game.
Huston Street	Hold	Injured.
Luke Gregerson	Hold	Still has zero saves so doesn’t have a share of the job. Will remove if this continues.
Dale Thayer	Lose	Added in. K rate too low for “hold” if he has a share. Has one save since Street got hurt.
Sergio Romo	Hold	Probably has no share of the role and still has zero saves since Casilla deposed, but hard to say.
Jeremy Affeldt	Hold	Appears to have the job alone but lack of opportunities makes it impossible to say.
Jason Motte	Hold	Why did he spend so much time in LaRussa’s dog house?
Tyler Clippard	Hold	2.7 K/BB, inevitable regression to the mean and presence of Storen make him vulnerable.


Hits	Misses
Hector Santiago	Sean Marshall
Francisco Cordero (TOR)	Steve Cishek
Jordan Walden	Dale Thayer
Brian Fuentes	Bobby Parnell
Rafael Dolis
Heath Bell
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Marmol
Javy Guerra
Grant Balfour
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes second time
Heath Bell second time
John Axford
Brett Myers
Francisco Cordero (HOU)
Francisco Rodriguez
Jonathon Broxton
Ryan Cook
Santiago Casilla

The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so, is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.

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