Here are this week’s results with predictions. Two status changes this week.
|Jim Johnson||Lose||Skills eroding almost every week. But cant argue with 37/40.|
|Alfredo Aceves||Hold||BPV exactly 80 changes status.|
|Addison Reed||Hold||4.0 K/BB ratio in last month solidifies spot.|
|Chris Perez||Hold||Amazingly, no worries at all.|
|Jose Valverde||Lose||Still arguably the worst closer in baseball.|
|Greg Holland||Hold||Just like that he is now a “hold,” as he has taken well to the role|
|Ernesto Frieri||Hold||Probably a bit lucky, and K/BB of 2.9 is not great for his K rate but shows good closers can be found.|
|Scott Downs||Lose||Back sooner than expected, role remains to be seen.|
|Glen Perkins||Hold||No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.|
|Jared Burton||Hold||No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.|
|Rafael Soriano||Hold||HR/FB still a low 2%, but had a good week and is a solid “hold.”|
|Grant Balfour||Lose||Appears to be a new man in the last month and 4-4 since he got the job back. And skills MUCH improved-close to ‘hold” status.|
|Tom Wilhelmsen||Hold||No worries at all.|
|Fernando Rodney||Hold||Made headlines by actually blowing a save. Who thought that would happen?|
|Joe Nathan||Hold||Practically a perfect skill set.|
|Casey Janssen||Hold||Has literally no flaws and no reason for concern. One of the best in the game right now.|
|JJ Putz||Hold||Only thing holding him back is lack of opportunities, but skill set is one of the best.|
|Craig Kimbrel||Hold||251 BPV? Insane.|
|Carlos Marmol||Hold||Believe it or not, has still not blown a save since April and is 14-14 since.|
|Aroldis Chapman||Hold||Watching him is like watching a pitcher who dropped in to the majors from a higher league.|
|Rafael Betancourt||Hold||Worried about next year, but almost no chance of job loss this year.|
|Kenley Jansen||Hold||A solid second-tier closer with a non-zero chance at being first-tier next year.|
|Steve Cishek||Lose||Still a “lose” but has been very good the last month, solidifying his job. And has been see-sawing between ‘hold” and ‘lose” all year.|
|Wilton Lopez||Hold||Doing it with miniscule BB rate. Last time that happened his K/BB dropped by 2/3 the next year.|
|Frank Francisco||Lose||Cannot yet consider him out of the role, but he was brought in during an 8-1 game and let up enough that Rauch got the save. Then got the save on 8/18.|
|Jon Rauch||Lose||Added in with 2 saves last week. Weak K rate gives him a “lose” status.|
|John Axford||Lose||No saves since 8/6 but not quite ready to declare him a “hit” for CIA just yet.|
|Jim Henderson||Hold||Shaky lately and rules don’t really apply to this small of a sample. But 5.7 K/BB is strong.|
|Jon Papelbon||Hold||No danger.|
|Joel Hanrahan||Hold||One of the most dependable in the game.|
|Luke Gregerson||Hold||Still has zero saves so doesn’t have a share of the job. Will remove if this continues.|
|Dale Thayer||Lose||Added in. K rate too low for “hold” if he has a share. Has one save since Street got hurt.|
|Sergio Romo||Hold||Probably has no share of the role and still has zero saves since Casilla deposed, but hard to say.|
|Jeremy Affeldt||Hold||Appears to have the job alone but lack of opportunities makes it impossible to say.|
|Jason Motte||Hold||Why did he spend so much time in LaRussa’s dog house?|
|Tyler Clippard||Hold||2.7 K/BB, inevitable regression to the mean and presence of Storen make him vulnerable.|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Francisco Cordero (TOR)||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes||Bobby Parnell|
|Brian Fuentes second time|
|Heath Bell second time|
|Francisco Cordero (HOU)|
The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so, is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.