The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so, is his save percentage greater than 90% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
| Pitcher | CIA result | Final Result | |
| Jim Johnson | Hold | Hit-Moderate | Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90% |
| Andrew Bailey | Lose | Miss- this is a case of a short sample fluctuation.Moderate. | Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers. |
| Addison Reed | Hold | Hit-moderate | Note: Automatic hold and lose status is based on season AND last ten |
| Chris Perez | Hold | Hit-moderate | Note: When a closer loses a job without announcement we go back to the day after his last save. |
| Jose Valverde | Lose | Miss- His case is not unexpected, since skills did not deter manager.-Easy | Note: Easy cases are cases everyone could get right. Moderate cases are 66% shots and Tough cases are ones that I think were tougher than 50-50 to get right. All judged by the day the got the job. |
| Greg Holland | Hold | Hit-Moderate | |
| Ernesto Frieri | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Glen Perkins | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Rafael Soriano | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Grant Balfour | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Fernando Rodney | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Joe Nathan | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Casey Janssen | Hold | Hit-Moderate | |
| J.J. Putz | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Craig Kimbrel | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Carlos Marmol | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Aroldis Chapman | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Jonathon Broxton | Lose | Hit-Easy | |
| Rafael Betancourt | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Kenley Jansen | Hold | Miss–tough -Never got an opportunity after his return from heart trouble. | |
| Ronald Belisario | Lose | Hit-moderate | |
| Brandon League | Lose | Miss-tough- | |
| Steve Cishek | Hold | Hit–status change based on 14/15 SV/SVO-Easy | |
| Wilton Lopez | Hold | Hit-Moderate | |
| Frank Francisco | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| John Axford | Hold | Hit-Tough | |
| Jon Papelbon | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Joel Hanrahan | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Luke Gregerson | Hold | Miss-as an injury replacement these are the toughest cases–we may alter it next year to ignore injury replacements. Easy | |
| Huston Street | Hold | Hit-Moderate | |
| Sergio Romo | Hold | Hit-Moderate | |
| Javier Lopez | Lose | Hit-his last save was 9/11 and Romo had three since then and all 9th inning opps.–Moderate | |
| Jason Motte | Hold | Hit-Easy | |
| Tyler Clippard | Hold | Miss-Tough. Lost job in the last games of the year after holding it all year. | |
| Hits | Misses | ||
| Hector Santiago | Sean Marshall | ||
| Francisco Cordero (TOR) | Steve Cishek | ||
| Jordan Walden | Dale Thayer | ||
| Brian Fuentes | Bobby Parnell | ||
| Rafael Dolis | Jared Burton | ||
| Heath Bell | Jim Henderson | ||
| Henry Rodriguez | |||
| Carlos Marmol | |||
| Javy Guerra | |||
| Grant Balfour | |||
| Brandon League | |||
| Brian Fuentes second time | |||
| Heath Bell second time | |||
| John Axford | |||
| Brett Myers | |||
| Francisco Cordero (HOU) | |||
| Francisco Rodriguez | |||
| Jonathon Broxton | |||
| Ryan Cook | |||
| Santiago Casilla | |||
| Alfredo Aceves | |||
| Scott Downs | |||
| Jeremy Affeldt | |||
| Dale Thayer (second shot) | |||
| Jonathon Broxton (Reds) |
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Latest posts by Patrick DiCaprio (Posts)
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 19 - May 19, 2013
- Pitch or Ditch Monday May 20 - May 19, 2013
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 13 - May 13, 2013
[...] In order to figure this out, I made my best guess on how difficult it would be to predict a particular case when they got the job. It is perhaps easy in hindsight to say “I knew Steve Cishek would hold the job in his second chance but would blow it in his first chance,” but whoever says this is lying. You can see the breakdown here. [...]
Here is the final result table for the Closer Identifier Algorithm http://t.co/mPK7SdLf