Closer Identifier Algorithm Predictions as of June 17

Here are the latest results as of June 17.  There were a few significant changes. CIA’s record remains an outstanding 13-3 and with Shawn Camp on the ropes it is very likely to be 14-3 in short order.

Heath Bell becomes a “hold,” since he is a stunning (at least to me) 11-11 in SV/SVO% since he regained the role. This is another good example where an algorithm will do better than a clinical analysis. My feelings towards Bell would undoubtedly color my analysis and lead me to a bad conclusion based on my emotions and confirmation bias. An algorithm does not have that flaw.

Two surprises this week are Tyler Clippard and Carlos Marmol. Clippard is now faced with a “lose” job status, and none too soon since Drew Storen may be back soon.

The fact that Marmol has the job back should make every Cubs’ fan sad. Last week, erstwhile closer Shawn Camp was a “hold,” but a disastrous week, topped off by a Sunday performance with 2 ER and 0 IP dropped him to “lose” status. It is almost a certainty to be announced that Marmol is back in the closer role if it has not already happened in fact.

Rafael Soriano is still in “lose” status. And David Robertson is back. It may be a matter of the next two weeks for Soriano; if he can solidify his position he may get to “hold” status, but one or two bad outings and Robertson will likely regain the role.

Lastly, Joel Hanrahan finally gets into “hold” status, which we have been saying for a few weeks. It will all be good for him from here on out unless he gets hurt.

Here is the current version of CIA:

The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so: Since he got the role or regained the role is his SV% greater than 95% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
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Patrick DiCaprio

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Latest posts by Patrick DiCaprio (Posts)

• Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For June 17 - Jun 17, 2013
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