Heath Bell becomes a “hold,” since he is a stunning (at least to me) 11-11 in SV/SVO% since he regained the role. This is another good example where an algorithm will do better than a clinical analysis. My feelings towards Bell would undoubtedly color my analysis and lead me to a bad conclusion based on my emotions and confirmation bias. An algorithm does not have that flaw.
Two surprises this week are Tyler Clippard and Carlos Marmol. Clippard is now faced with a “lose” job status, and none too soon since Drew Storen may be back soon.
The fact that Marmol has the job back should make every Cubs’ fan sad. Last week, erstwhile closer Shawn Camp was a “hold,” but a disastrous week, topped off by a Sunday performance with 2 ER and 0 IP dropped him to “lose” status. It is almost a certainty to be announced that Marmol is back in the closer role if it has not already happened in fact.
Rafael Soriano is still in “lose” status. And David Robertson is back. It may be a matter of the next two weeks for Soriano; if he can solidify his position he may get to “hold” status, but one or two bad outings and Robertson will likely regain the role.
Lastly, Joel Hanrahan finally gets into “hold” status, which we have been saying for a few weeks. It will all be good for him from here on out unless he gets hurt.
|Pitcher||CIA result||Reason for Change/Comments|
|Grant Balfour||Lose||Cook anointed the closer.|
|Brandon League||Lose||Added back in|
|Shawn Camp||Lose||Role in flux with Marmol|
|Carlos Marmol||Lose||Added back in|
|Brett Myers||Lose||94% SV/SVO makes him close to “hold”|
|Heath Bell||Hold||11 for 11 since regaining role|
|John Axford||Lose||K/BB 2.1|
|Joel Hanrahan||Hold||BPV increase to 86|
|Tyler Clippard||Lose||K/BB dips below 2.5|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Scott Downs||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes second time|
Here is the current version of CIA:
The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so: Since he got the role or regained the role is his SV% greater than 95% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
Follow Patrick on twitter @pdicaprioFP911 and listen to him on The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show