As of yesterday evening we were unwilling to declare Ryan Cook a “hit.” However, it has now been reported that Cook is officially out as closer. As a result, we have added Cook to the “hit” list.
I have altered the algorithm to include a blown saves criterion: Is the pitcher’s SV/SVO less than or equal to 60% in his last ten SVO? If so, he gets automatic “lose” status. This applies to Santiago Casilla and John Axford, who, as of this writing, is still in the mix. There are rumors that the Brewers will “shut down” both Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, not because of injury but because they are sick and tired of watching them pitch. But, for now, we will not count Axford as a “hit.”
The ledger stands at 20 “hits” and 4 “misses.”
|Jim Johnson||Lose||92% SV/SVO misses by 1%. Almost certainly safe.|
|Alfredo Aceves||Lose||Barely misses ‘hold” with 72 BPV|
|Addison Reed||Hold||Looks safe for ROS|
|Chris Perez||Hold||Despite recent hiccups is still in no danger|
|Jose Valverde||Lose||Still arguably the worst closer in baseball|
|Greg Holland||Lose||Off to a great start but still barely “lose” unless we round up his K/BB to 2.5. Looks good though.|
|Ernesto Frieri||Hold||Probably a bit lucky, and K/BB of 2.9 is not great for his K rate.|
|Scott Downs||Lose||Out for season?|
|Glen Perkins||Hold||He and Burton are in no danger and provide a great opportunity for management to use the pen correctly. Here’s hoping Gardenhire recognizes this fact.|
|Rafael Soriano||Hold||Still lucky with 2% HR/FB and skills good not great. I am slightly worried.|
|Ryan Cook||Lose||Lost job- “hit”.|
|Grant Balfour||Lose||Still well below minimums|
|Tom Wilhelmsen||Hold||Rock solid and a great story.|
|Fernando Rodney||Hold||Can you explain a 1.3 BB rate? I can’t. As great as he is, he isn’t one of the ten best and there are holes|
|Joe Nathan||Hold||No danger, despite a few days off.|
|Casey Janssen||Hold||Has literally no flaws and no reason for concern.|
|JJ Putz||Hold||He is a star-closer; K/BB over 5.0 and BPV > 150|
|Craig Kimbrel||Hold||Best reliever in baseball.|
|Carlos Marmol||Hold||Believe it or not, has not blown a save since April(!)|
|Aroldis Chapman||Hold||Only 1 ER vs. NL all season and 96 K in 49 IP as of Friday.|
|Rafael Betancourt||Hold||Seasonal trend in K and K/BB slightly concerning.|
|Kenley Jansen||Hold||Gotten better as season rolled along.|
|Steve Cishek||Lose||Skills say “lose” and only 7/10 so new criteria could hurt. I have been on his side but now a doubter. Plus Bell may get the job back, so CIA looking for the Bell trifecta.|
|Wilton Lopez||Hold||No danger.|
|Frank Francisco||Lose||May only be a matter or time before Mets go in another direction with Parnell, or less interestingly, Jon Rauch.|
|John Axford||Lose||Another possible hit? New criteria makes him a “lose” also.|
|Jim Henderson||Hold||Appears to have the full job.|
|Jon Papelbon||Hold||No danger.|
|Joel Hanrahan||Hold||One of the most dependable in the game.|
|Luke Gregerson||Hold||Added in. Skills plenty good for “hold” status IF he has a share while Street is out.|
|Dale Thayer||Lose||Added in. K rate too low for “hold” if he has a share.|
|Santiago Casilla||Lose||See changed criteria||new criteria-if have 60% or less SV/SVO in last ten|
|Sergio Romo||Hold||Probably has no share of the role.|
|Jeremy Affeldt||Hold||Appears to have the job alone|
|Jason Motte||Hold||No danger.|
|Tyler Clippard||Hold||2.7 K/BB, inevitable regression to the mean and presence of Storen make him vulnerable.|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Francisco Cordero (TOR)||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes||Bobby Parnell|
|Brian Fuentes second time|
|Heath Bell second time|
|Francisco Cordero (HOU)|
The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so, is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
Is the pitcher’s SV/SVO% less than or equal to 60% over his last ten opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job