Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For August 27

Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN

Here are this week’s Closer Identifier Algorithm results. We have three status changes this week. Also, with the situation in Boston, Aceves is likely going to be a “hit” and we added in Mark Melancon.

Also, Huston Street is on the way back, and this will result in a “hit” for Dale Thayer, though I feel dirty claiming it. This will run the record to a strong 20-4. With Aceves also anticipated to be a “hit” this will run the record to 21-4, which is strong evidence that the algorithm will make better predictions than even the best expert, clinical analysis.

The last bit of news: we have eased the SV/SVO requirement for automatic “hold” status to 90%, down from 93%. It is clear that 93% is far too stringent, but it should be an ratio that is not easily attained.

Pitcher	CIA result	Comments
Jim Johnson	Hold	Racks up saves and is very dependable, but skills are weak so regression is coming, likely next year.	Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Alfredo Aceves	Lose	Suspended three games, and probably done as closer. 73 BPV is below CIA minimums so may be a “hit” next week.
Andrew Bailey	Hold	Will need to implode before losing his share of the job.
Mark Melancon	Hold	Has been fine since early struggles, and we think he is at least in the mix even if he does not have a share right now.
Addison Reed	Hold	Has been solid but not spectacular and a 4.11 ERA doesn’t instill confidence.
Chris Perez	Hold	His amazing season continues.
Jose Valverde	Lose	6 for 6 in SV/SVO in last ten, with only 2 ER but let up at least 1 H in each. Just misses the 90% SV/SVO at 26/30.
Greg Holland	Hold	2 wins, 6 saves, 1 R in last ten. K/BB only 2.64 but looks like a solid “hold” otherwise.
Ernesto Frieri	Hold	Looking solid. No short-term worries.
Scott Downs	Lose	Role is unclear right now-no saves in a month.
Glen Perkins	Hold	Still appears to be in a job share, but Burton has zero saves in last five appearances.
Jared Burton	Hold	May be at a very slight disadvantage but skills provide no concerns.
Rafael Soriano	Hold	Even the most optimistic observer did not see a 33/35 SV/SVO coming.
Grant Balfour	Lose	Skills are still weak, but much improved and has been perfect since getting the job. Probably a small risk of implosion.
Tom Wilhelmsen	Hold	His first BS since July was a bloop and two OF colliding in a bad play. No worries here.
Fernando Rodney	Hold	Battling for “best closer” title at 39/41 SV/SVO, but skills are not close to the best closers. Still, no worries at all here.
Joe Nathan	Hold	Texas using him only in save situations, and it is working like a charm.
Casey Janssen	Hold	Top skills continuing to shine in the role.
JJ Putz	Hold	BPV of 162 is better than other bigger names.
Craig Kimbrel	Hold	Still the best closer in baseball.
Carlos Marmol	Hold	Amazing resurgence continues, and still has zero BS since April.
Aroldis Chapman	Hold	There are no sufficient superlatives for his dominance.
Rafael Betancourt	Hold	No short-term worries.
Kenley Jansen	Hold	Continues to be rock solid, and will be in the spotlight in September.
Steve Cishek	Lose	Tantalizingly close to “hold” status as he is within rounding errors of CIA minimums.
Wilton Lopez	Hold	Getting it done with elite, Carlos Silva-like control.
Frank Francisco	Lose	If you are asking me why he has two saves in the last ten days, I have no idea other than “lack of imagination” by Collins.
Jon Rauch	Lose	Not clear what he will be going forward, but it seems clear he never had a share of the job in any meaningful way.
John Axford	Lose	It is obvious at this point that Ron Roenicke has no idea what he is doing with his bullpen management. This is a fireable offense in my view.
Jim Henderson	Hold	Reportedly part of the committee going forward.
Jon Papelbon	Hold	Only three blown saves, and despite his “bad” contract he is earning his keep.
Joel Hanrahan	Hold	As sure as the sunrise, and deserves a bigger stage.
Huston Street	Hold	Will be back soon-on rehab now
Dale Thayer	Lose	This really shouldn’t count as a ‘hit” and his days are numbered.
Sergio Romo	Hold	155 BPV says he is a legitimate second-tier closer.
Jeremy Affeldt	Lose	K/BB down to 2.3, BPV not close to Romo and he is a lefty.
Javier Lopez	Lose	Terrible skills but 0 ER in last 19 games keeps him in the mix for now.
Jason Motte	Hold	Surging skill set and K rate in the last month.
Tyler Clippard	Hold	Still besting CIA but not by a lot, and is a good example of how CIA can be used to compare closers.


Hits	Misses
Hector Santiago	Sean Marshall
Francisco Cordero (TOR)	Steve Cishek
Jordan Walden	Dale Thayer
Brian Fuentes	Bobby Parnell
Rafael Dolis
Heath Bell
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Marmol
Javy Guerra
Grant Balfour
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes second time
Heath Bell second time
John Axford
Brett Myers
Francisco Cordero (HOU)
Francisco Rodriguez
Jonathon Broxton
Ryan Cook
Santiago Casilla