Joel Hanrahan, PIT
Changes for this week: Surprisingly, Alfredo Aceves has regressed into “lose” status. His k/BB slipped to 2.4 this week, which also weakened his BPV below the CIA minimum of 80.
Brett Myers’ trade to the White Sox results in a job loss, and another “hit” for CIA. I have lowered CIA’s success rate to 15-3, since certain players that counted as “hits” never really had a share of the job–Mark Melancon, Shawn Camp and James Russell for example. The current record is being as fair as possible, but if you think I missed someone let me know.
Jared Burton, Francisco Cordero, K-Rod and Sergio Romo were added to the spreadsheet this week. Their roles are not yet fully defined enough to merit a determination of what share of the job they have, but we include them anyway as newsworthy.
The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so: is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
| Pitcher | CIA result | Comments |
| Jim Johnson | Hold | |
| Alfredo Aceves | Lose | K/BB and BPV decrease |
| Addison Reed | Hold | |
| Chris Perez | Hold | |
| Jose Valverde | Lose | |
| Jon Broxton | Lose | |
| Ernesto Frieri | Hold | K/BB erosion to 2.8. |
| Scott Downs | Lose | |
| Glen Perkins | Hold | |
| Jared Burton | Hold | not clear if he has a share |
| Rafael Soriano | Hold | |
| Ryan Cook | Lose | skills and SV/SVO mediocre |
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Hold | |
| Fernando Rodney | Hold | |
| Joe Nathan | Hold | |
| Casey Janssen | Hold | |
| JJ Putz | Hold | |
| Craig Kimbrel | Hold | |
| Carlos Marmol | Lose | |
| Aroldis Chapman | Hold | |
| Rafael Betancourt | Hold | |
| Brett Myers | Lose | traded to CWS–hit |
| Kenley Jansen | Hold | |
| Steve Cishek | Lose | further skill erosion |
| Francisco Cordero (HOU) | Lose | Added in after trade |
| Frank Francisco | Lose | |
| Bobby Parnell | Hold | |
| Francisco Rodriguez | Lose | Added in |
| Jon Papelbon | Hold | |
| Joel Hanrahan | Hold | |
| Huston Street | Hold | Perfect SV/SVO |
| Santiago Casilla | Hold | |
| Sergio Romo | Hold | no share of job yet-watch |
| Jason Motte | Hold | |
| Tyler Clippard | Hold | |
| Hits | Misses | |
| Hector Santiago | Sean Marshall | |
| Francisco Cordero (TOR) | Steve Cishek | |
| Jordan Walden | Dale Thayer | |
| Brian Fuentes | ||
| Rafael Dolis | ||
| Heath Bell | ||
| Henry Rodriguez | ||
| Carlos Marmol | ||
| Javy Guerra | ||
| Grant Balfour | ||
| Brandon League | ||
| Brian Fuentes second time | ||
| Heath Bell second time | ||
| John Axford | ||
| Brett Myers |
Latest posts by Patrick DiCaprio (Posts)
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 19 - May 19, 2013
- Pitch or Ditch Monday May 20 - May 19, 2013
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 13 - May 13, 2013
here are the latest #Closer Identifier Algorithm results. Every closer analyzed, and a 15-3 success rate #CIA http://t.co/0S7jBCuR
here are the latest #Closer Identifier Algorithm results. Every closer analyzed, and a 15-3 success rate #CIA http://t.co/0S7jBCuR