Changes for this week: Surprisingly, Alfredo Aceves has regressed into “lose” status. His k/BB slipped to 2.4 this week, which also weakened his BPV below the CIA minimum of 80.
Brett Myers’ trade to the White Sox results in a job loss, and another “hit” for CIA. I have lowered CIA’s success rate to 15-3, since certain players that counted as “hits” never really had a share of the job–Mark Melancon, Shawn Camp and James Russell for example. The current record is being as fair as possible, but if you think I missed someone let me know.
Jared Burton, Francisco Cordero, K-Rod and Sergio Romo were added to the spreadsheet this week. Their roles are not yet fully defined enough to merit a determination of what share of the job they have, but we include them anyway as newsworthy.
The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so: is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
|Alfredo Aceves||Lose||K/BB and BPV decrease|
|Ernesto Frieri||Hold||K/BB erosion to 2.8.|
|Jared Burton||Hold||not clear if he has a share|
|Ryan Cook||Lose||skills and SV/SVO mediocre|
|Brett Myers||Lose||traded to CWS–hit|
|Steve Cishek||Lose||further skill erosion|
|Francisco Cordero (HOU)||Lose||Added in after trade|
|Francisco Rodriguez||Lose||Added in|
|Huston Street||Hold||Perfect SV/SVO|
|Sergio Romo||Hold||no share of job yet-watch|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Francisco Cordero (TOR)||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes second time|
|Heath Bell second time|