Addison Reed, RP, Chicago White Sox
Here is the first updated set of the 2012 FSWA Award-Winning Closer Identifier Algorithm results for 2013 with commentary. The initial article will be up at USAToday.com tomorrow.
| Pitcher | CIA Result | Comments |
| Jim Johnson | Hold | Weak K rate but 94% SV/SVO |
| Joel Hanrahan | Hold | 1.9 K/BB but BARELY holds on with 90% SV/SVO |
| Addison Reed | Hold | Not close to top tier |
| Chris Perez | Hold | One of the big surprises last year but is hurt as of this writing and will be out a few weeks |
| Vinnie Pestano | Hold | Dealing with injury replacements is always difficult, but Pestano may run with the job; he is good enough to do so. |
| Joaquin Benoit | Hold | May have nominal competition, but is easily the best bet in the pen over Rondon. |
| Bruce Rondon | Lose | Wouldn’t qualify for the AAA version of CIA |
| Phil Coke | Hold | Most likely won’t start with a share of the job. |
| Al Albuquerque | Lose | We have seen this story before many times: fireballer with no control gets the job and blows it. His extreme GB% helps. |
| Wesley Wright | Hold | He is a LOOGY but no one else in the Houston pen merits a second glance by CIA. |
| Greg Holland | Hold | BB issues need to improve. Third Tier closer for now. |
| Kelvin Herrera | Hold | Might be better than Holland right now, and is a solid backup plan. |
| Ryan Madson | Hold | Based on 2011 season stats. |
| Ernesto Frieri | Hold | Despite hold rating, there are negatives and any K erosion will make him a “lose” status. |
| Glen Perkins | Hold | Despite being a lefty, he is top-five worthy, and under the radar. |
| Jared Burton | Hold | Like Kelvin Herrera, he is a great backup plan. |
| Mariano Rivera | Hold | Based on 9 appearances in 2012. |
| Ryan Cook | Hold | BPV says he is below the better guys but above the third-tier guys. |
| Grant Balfour | Lose | BPV of 79 barely misses “hold” status. 2.6 K/BB marginal. |
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Hold | Rebounded nicely and looks solid. |
| Fernando Rodney | Hold | 48/50 SV/SVO |
| Joe Nathan | Hold | A top five option, and no negatives. |
| Casey Janssen | Hold | The most underrated closer? He is right there after Kimbrel. The only concern is his injury. |
| Sergio Santos | Lose | he gets a “lose” status based on his six-game sample, but if we look at 2011 he would get a “hold.” He is coming off an injury so who knows what we will get. |
| National League | ||
| JJ Putz | Hold | Near the top of the heap. |
| Craig Kimbrel | Hold | Highest BPV over Chapman |
| Carlos Marmol | Hold | Skills are well below CIA minimums, but he makes it on SV/SVO in last ten (90%) |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | Lose | Based PURELY on projected K/BB and BB rate. We include him for completeness but does not technically qualify yet. |
| Jonathon Broxton | Hold | He has the least rope of any closer based on CIA minimums. He only barely merits “hold” status. |
| Sean Marshall | Hold | As it looks right now, he is a much better bet than Broxton, but for the manager. |
| Rafael Betancourt | Hold | Is on a big K/9 decline that, if it continues, will earn a “lose” status. |
| Brandon League | Lose | Well below all CIA minimums. |
| Kenley Jansen | Hold | His BaseballHQ BPV says he is a top five closer right now. |
| Steve Cishek | Hold | Gets a “hold” based on his last ten, but the skill set is weak and the leash is short. |
| Jose Ceda | Lose | If he gets a share of the job his BB rate says he will lose it. The situation may be in flux. |
| Ryan Webb | Lose | The Marlins have to hope that Cishek keeps his “hold” rating or they are in trouble. |
| John Axford | Hold | Like Cishek, his success in save conversion merits a “hold” status, but the skills set is still a work in progress. |
| Jim Henderson | Hold | He easily bests CIA minimums. |
| Frank Francisco | Hold | He had a fairly decent run of converted saves that merits a “hold.” For now. |
| Bobby Parnell | Hold | He may be the new Ryan Madson over the next few years, getting no shot for purely subjective reasons. |
| Jonathan Papelbon | Hold | No concerns so far despite some Spring struggles. |
| Jason Grilli | Hold | 2012′s small sample is the only one that suggests he will hold the job. And he is 36. make of that what you will. |
| Mark Melancon | Hold | Was much better than subjective analysis will give him credit for. Has a good shot to lead the Pirates’ pen. |
| Huston Street | Hold | We all know the drill. If he is healthy he is a top closer. |
| Sergio Romo | Hold | Easily a top ten, safe pick. |
| Jason Motte | Hold | A few too many blown saves for aesthetic purposes, but is fairly safe. |
| Rafael Soriano | Hold | Held a miniscule HR/FB until September, which buoyed him a bit. He is a clear “hold” but not safe. |
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[...] Is Addison Reed the closer? The Closer Identifier Algorithm thinks so, but not by a large margin. He gets a ‘hold” status based on a 3.0 K/BB and a 91 BPV, [...]