Joel Hanrahan, PIT
No hits or misses this week in a relatively quiet week for CIA. We still have two status changes. At this stage the future doesn’t matter, and the sheet is all about tallying the final record.
The record still remains 24-6. A summary of the biggest surprises and failures among closers will be posted later today in my USAToday.com column. Next week we will sum up the CIA experiment, will plan for the next step, and will discuss how and why this experiment appears to be a success.
My belief is that fantasy baseball has gone as far as it can go in terms of accurate projections and sophisticated sabermetrics. The next frontier is to make better use of what the industry has already achieved, and CIA is a first step in that endeavor.
| Pitcher | CIA result | Comments | ||
| Jim Johnson | Hold |
|
Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90% | |
| Andrew Bailey | Hold | Status change again as he is still a small sample. But he is well above minimums right now. | Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers. | |
| Addison Reed | Hold | With every week he gets closer to “lose” status and is at his low point right now. | Note: Automatic hold status is based on season AND last ten | |
| Chris Perez | Hold | Someone tell him he should keep his mouth shut. Please? | ||
| Jose Valverde | Lose | Valverde is now guaranteed a “lose” status for the year, and CIA is virtually guaranteed to miss on him, which is poetic justice in a way. | ||
| Greg Holland | Hold | His 2.7 K/BB is barely acceptable. | ||
| Ernesto Frieri | Hold | Frieri is at the head of the third-tier closers, with a very solid 142 BPV. | ||
| Glen Perkins | Hold | Perkins is right behind Frieri in tier three with a 131 BPV. | ||
| Kevin Jepsen | Hold | I will spare you the Carly Rae jokes and merely point out that I am grudgingly giving Mike Scioscia credit for doing a great job with the pen this year. Whether he has a share is iffy, but we include him as usual. | ||
| Rafael Soriano | Hold | We cannot rightly say “Mariano who?” But the Yanks have not missed a beat without Mariano. | ||
| Grant Balfour | Hold | Skills still are well below the stat minimums, but Balfour gets automatic “hold” status from his SV/SVO of 19/21. | ||
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Hold | The one-time bartender is in the throes of a freefall, with a -71 BPV in the last month. He will be interesting to watch next year. | ||
| Fernando Rodney | Hold | His 0.66 ERA has to be a typo or is confused with his usual K/BB rate. | ||
| Joe Nathan | Hold | Some recent hiccups barely dampen a tremendous season for Nathan. And he has surged in the last month with a 258 BPV. | ||
| Casey Janssen | Hold | Proof that LIMA still has strong vitality, and his K/BB ratio of 6.8 induces drools, or at least it should. | ||
| J.J. Putz | Hold | He has been steady all year, and had at least a 119 BPV in every month. | ||
| Craig Kimbrel | Hold | Still the best, now by a wide margin. | ||
| Carlos Marmol | Hold | 20 consecutive conversions. Simply unbelievable. | ||
| Aroldis Chapman | Hold | Here’s hoping he is not the next Kerry Wood or Mark Prior if the Reds go all the way to the Series. | ||
| Jonathon Broxton | Lose | We feel dirty including him, as he has no business being discussed here, but for some late-season rest for Chapman. | ||
| Rafael Betancourt | Hold | After a K rate stumble in August, Betancourt has rebounded and has been very steady all year. | ||
| Kenley Jansen | Hold | Should be back as of this writing though not as the sole closer at first. | ||
| Ronald Belisario | Lose | Will be a dirty “hit’ for CIA if Jansen fully reclaims the role, which is no guarantee. | ||
| Brandon League | Lose | Mattingly says Jansen will not be a full-time closer upon his return, and League is still in the mix. | ||
| Steve Cishek | Hold | He is 13/14 since getting the job back (one he shouldn’t have lost in the first place) and should be in clover the rest of the way | ||
| Wilton Lopez | Hold | Rapidly becoming my favorite reliever, simply because he is so good and still unknown. He is a top ten closer at a bargain price. The NL version of Casey Janssen. | ||
| Frank Francisco | Hold | A 5.53 ERA makes me queasy, but he is 18 for his last 20 and gets another “hold.” | ||
| John Axford | Hold | Still getting the job done despite his manager’s best efforts to waste a good asset. | ||
| Jon Papelbon | Hold | He is as safe as closers get, and well worth a big fantasy price compared to his compatriots. | ||
| Joel Hanrahan | Hold | We will take him over Papelbon, but not by much. Another low-risk option. | ||
| Luke Gregerson | Hold | Huston Street is on rehab again, and may oust Gregerson, but not because Gregerson has earned a demotion. | ||
| Sergio Romo | Hold | Romo is right there, skills-wise, with the best closers in the non Chapman/Kimbrel club. | ||
| Javier Lopez | Lose | 6-6 in conversions so far, and CIA is hoping he gets his next three conversions to obtain automatic “hold” status, since his skills are slightly abhorrent. | ||
| Jason Motte | Hold | Tony LaRussa should be in his own doghouse given his disgraceful misuse of a tremendous talent. | ||
| Tyler Clippard | Hold | Give Davey Johnson credit for throttling down the abuse of Clippard in past seasons and coaxing an excellent season out of him. But Clipp is still a bottom level closer. | ||
| Hits | Misses | |||
| Hector Santiago | Sean Marshall | |||
| Francisco Cordero (TOR) | Steve Cishek | |||
| Jordan Walden | Dale Thayer | |||
| Brian Fuentes | Bobby Parnell | |||
| Rafael Dolis | Jared Burton | |||
| Heath Bell | Jim Henderson | |||
| Henry Rodriguez | ||||
| Carlos Marmol | ||||
| Javy Guerra | ||||
| Grant Balfour | ||||
| Brandon League | ||||
| Brian Fuentes second time | ||||
| Heath Bell second time | ||||
| John Axford | ||||
| Brett Myers | ||||
| Francisco Cordero (HOU) | ||||
| Francisco Rodriguez | ||||
| Jonathon Broxton | ||||
| Ryan Cook | ||||
| Santiago Casilla | ||||
| Alfredo Aceves | ||||
| Scott Downs | ||||
| Jeremy Affeldt | ||||
| Dale Thayer (second shot) |
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Latest posts by Patrick DiCaprio (Posts)
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Here is the penultimate Closer Identifier Algorithm list. After next week we will tally the results. http://t.co/yc6dVkKg
Here is the penultimate Closer Identifier Algorithm list. After next week we will tally the results. http://t.co/yc6dVkKg