Two changes this week. Rafael Soriano jumps into “hold” status, based on his sterling SV/SVO%. On the other hand, Heath Bell once again drops to “lose” status of letting up 7 ER in his last 7.2 IP. Like Brian Fuentes, CIA may chalk up multiple correct predictions at his expense.
Addison Reed is looking shaky, as all of his numbers are very close to CIA minimums. However, with his 13/14 SV/SVO he continues to get the job done, and is still a hold for now.
Jonathon Broxton may end up being a pitcher that CIA simply gets wrong. His skill set is poor, his SV/SVO% is below CIA requirements, but he continues to keep a hold on the job.
Scott Downs gets added in as he appears to have a solid share of the job. He is not nearly as good as Ernesto Frieri, but has the support of a manager who is venturing close to Dusty Baker levels of ineptitude.
Matt Capps is due back this week and he likely gets his job back. We included Glen Perkins as a technical matter, and it will be a shocking victory for CIA if Perkins keeps the job, as Capps has been on the “lose” list most of the year. My clinical analysis says Capps should get the job back in the short term, but that is why we are trying this experiment.
Similar comments apply for Bobby Parnell. He has the job as a technical matter, but Frank Francisco is a solid “hold.” As shocking a victory for CIA as Perkins might be, Parnell keeping the job would be an even more shocking loss for CIA.
Tyler Clippard is starting to become interesting. His skill set is on the slow wane, and he, like Reed above, only marginally meets CIA’s minimum criteria. With Drew Storen on the mend, Clippard may present more danger than appears at first glance.
CIA correctly predicted that Fernando Rodney would keep the job, as did almost every sentient being. Technically this is not a victory for CIA since “hold” statuses can only be determined at the end of the season.
|Pitcher||CIA result||Reason for Change/Comments|
|Addison Reed||Hold||barely a “hold” but 13/14 in SV/SVO|
|Jose Valverde||Lose||challenging for “worst closer” title|
|Scott Downs||Lose||Added in–low K rate of 5.7|
|Matt Capps||Lose||due back 7/13. May not have the job.SV/SVO is one save away from “hold”|
|Glen Perkins||Hold||Status is uncertain-will monitor|
|Rafael Soriano||Hold||SV/SVO changes him to a hold.|
|Ryan Cook||Lose||skills improving-may get to “hold”|
|Fernando Rodney||Hold||held off Farnsworth upon Farnsworth’s return|
|Carlos Marmol||Lose||6/6 since return in SV/SVO|
|Brett Myers||Lose||18/20 in SV/SVO makes him close to “hold”|
|Heath Bell||Lose||yet another change in status|
|John Axford||Lose||only a matter of time in our view|
|Bobby Parnell||Hold||technically on the list but close to 0% chance he holds the job, like Glen Perkins|
|Tyler Clippard||Hold||Skills on the wane-possibly vulnerable|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Scott Downs||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes second time|