Drew Storen, Nationals
The Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) chalks up another three hits to run its record of correct predictions of demotions from the closer role to an impressive 12-1 (I hadn’t counted Brandon League at the time of this original article). The record so far is excellent, and even better than I ever dreamed, but it must be tempered with the fact that we only determine when a player is a “hit” or “miss” when there is a job change, a la Schrodinger’s Cat.
So, at the end of the season it is posisble for a lot of “lose” statuses that kept the job to become “misses” all at once. That said, it should be clear by now that the original premise that an algorithm will predict the future better than any group of experts is looking very strong.
Also, we are not counting ascensions to the role as “hits.” If we did that the record would be far better. But the point is to predict failure. If we ignore the first criteria we can boost the “hit” rate somewhere close to 95%, but that might introduce a double-counting bias in that one or two players might see-saw in and out of the role. So, we leave it to demotions only for now. It does not purport to predict ascensions yet, but only demotions.
The process? If the answers to all questions are “yes” then CIA predicts a “hold.” If any one is “no” then the algorithm terminates and issues a “lose” status.
1.Does the player have a share of the job now?
2.Does the current closer have a BaseballHQ.com BPV over 80
3.Is his K/BB rate over 2.5?
4. Is his K rate over 7.0?
Here are the latest results:
| Pitcher | CIA result | Reason for Change, if any |
| Jim Johnson | Lose | |
| Alfredo Aceves | Lose | |
| Addison Reed | Hold | |
| Chris Perez | Hold | Finally gets K/BB over 2.5 |
| Jose Valverde | Lose | |
| Jon Broxton | Lose | |
| Scott Downs | Lose | |
| Ernesto Frieri | Hold | Won share of job-hit |
| Matt Capps | Lose | |
| Rafael Soriano | Lose | K/BB under 2.3 |
| Brian Fuentes | Lose | |
| Brandon League | Lose | Lost job- HIT |
| Fernando Rodney | Hold | |
| Joe Nathan | Hold | |
| Casey Janssen | Hold | |
| JJ Putz | Hold | |
| Craig Kimbrel | Hold | |
| Rafael Dolis | Lose | Lost job–HIT |
| Shawn Camp | Hold | Added |
| James Russell | Lose | Added |
| Sean Marshall | Hold | Lost job-Miss |
| Aroldis Chapman | Hold | |
| Rafael Betancourt | Hold | |
| Brett Myers | Lose | |
| Kenley Jansen | Hold | |
| Heath Bell | Lose | Added back-role unclear |
| Steve Cishek | Hold | Role unclear-might be a change next week |
| John Axford | Hold | |
| Frank Francisco | Lose | close to “hold” |
| Jon Papelbon | Hold | |
| Joel Hanrahan | Lose | Will certainly make “hold status” soon |
| Dale Thayer | Hold | |
| Santiago Casilla | Hold | solidifying “hold” status |
| Jason Motte | Hold | |
| Henry Rodriguez | Lose | Lost job-Hit |
| Tyler Clippard | ||
| Hits | Misses | |
| Brandon League | Sean Marshall | |
| Hector Santiago | ||
| Scott Downs | ||
| Jordan Walden | ||
| Brian Fuentes | ||
| Rafael Dolis | ||
| Heath Bell | ||
| Scott Downs | ||
| Henry Rodriguez | ||
| Carlos Marmol | ||
| Javy Guerra | ||
| Grant Balfour |
Latest posts by Patrick DiCaprio (Posts)
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 19 - May 19, 2013
- Pitch or Ditch Monday May 20 - May 19, 2013
- Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 13 - May 13, 2013
Latest Closer Identifier Algorithm Results May 28: The Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) chalks up another three… http://t.co/wGxPtMqW
The #Closer Identifier Algorithm runs its record to an impressive 11-1 in predicting closer demotions. http://t.co/1up6Z7kE
The #Closer Identifier Algorithm runs its record to an impressive 11-1 in predicting closer demotions. http://t.co/1up6Z7kE