The Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) chalks up another three hits to run its record of correct predictions of demotions from the closer role to an impressive 12-1 (I hadn’t counted Brandon League at the time of this original article). The record so far is excellent, and even better than I ever dreamed, but it must be tempered with the fact that we only determine when a player is a “hit” or “miss” when there is a job change, a la Schrodinger’s Cat.
So, at the end of the season it is posisble for a lot of “lose” statuses that kept the job to become “misses” all at once. That said, it should be clear by now that the original premise that an algorithm will predict the future better than any group of experts is looking very strong.
Also, we are not counting ascensions to the role as “hits.” If we did that the record would be far better. But the point is to predict failure. If we ignore the first criteria we can boost the “hit” rate somewhere close to 95%, but that might introduce a double-counting bias in that one or two players might see-saw in and out of the role. So, we leave it to demotions only for now. It does not purport to predict ascensions yet, but only demotions.
The process? If the answers to all questions are “yes” then CIA predicts a “hold.” If any one is “no” then the algorithm terminates and issues a “lose” status.
1.Does the player have a share of the job now?
2.Does the current closer have a BaseballHQ.com BPV over 80
3.Is his K/BB rate over 2.5?
4. Is his K rate over 7.0?
Here are the latest results:
|Pitcher||CIA result||Reason for Change, if any|
|Chris Perez||Hold||Finally gets K/BB over 2.5|
|Ernesto Frieri||Hold||Won share of job-hit|
|Rafael Soriano||Lose||K/BB under 2.3|
|Brandon League||Lose||Lost job- HIT|
|Rafael Dolis||Lose||Lost job–HIT|
|Sean Marshall||Hold||Lost job-Miss|
|Heath Bell||Lose||Added back-role unclear|
|Steve Cishek||Hold||Role unclear-might be a change next week|
|Frank Francisco||Lose||close to “hold”|
|Joel Hanrahan||Lose||Will certainly make “hold status” soon|
|Santiago Casilla||Hold||solidifying “hold” status|
|Henry Rodriguez||Lose||Lost job-Hit|
|Brandon League||Sean Marshall|